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Japan vs. the World: Aging Population and Population Decline (2022 Update)

Monday, May 16, 2022

At current birth rates will Japan cease to exist? Elon Musk seems to think so, we looked at the numbers to find out.

日本 人口減少世界 平均年齢日本 平均年齢世界 日本 平均年齢世界 日本 平均寿命世界 日本 人口 推移日本 人口減少 予測Japan Population DeclineWorld Median AgeJapan Median AgeJapan Average AgeJapan will disappearElon Musk日本は消滅する イーロン・マスク
Japan vs. the World: Aging Population and Population Decline (2022 Update)

[Updated 22.09.2022]

On May 8th 2022 Elon Musk tweeted :

“At risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world.”

The viral tweet had the internet buzzing, but is this actually true? Will Japan in fact cease to exist at current birth and death rates? News reports and the Japanese are in a constant frenzy about Japan’s declining population, but what do the numbers actually say? We took a look to predict where Japan’s population is headed. 

Japan’s population peaked at 128.1 million between 2008 and 2010, 12 years later Japan’s population has dropped to 125.8 million which translates to a 1.79% decrease in roughly 15 years. 

But how do these numbers compare with global trends in the rest of the world?



Contents:

1.  Median age in Japan vs the World

 ・Median age in the World

 ・Top 20 Countries with the Highest Median Age


2.  Changing Population Demographics: Japan & the World

    ・Global Population

 ・Top 20 Countries with the Largest Population

 ・World Population Projections

 ・Japan Population Projections

 ・Average Life Expectancy: World


3. Summary

1: Median Age in Japan vs the World

*Data Source: World Population Review and World Meter 


 ・Average age of the global population

The map below identifies the median age by country of the population across the globe

7b1a18e0-e0b1-11ec-be35-062e737cfa80.png

                   Source: World Population Review

This image shows that the average age of the population in most countries ranges from 30 - 40. 

So how does Japan compare with the rest of the world?

7a9f44da-e0b1-11ec-ad99-062e737cfa80.png

・Countries with the Highest Median Age

1. Monaco               55.4

2. Japan               48.6

3. Germany             47.8

4. Saint Pierre and Miquelon  46.5

5. Italy                         44.5

6. Greece                                44.5

7. Slovenia                                 44.5

8. Hong Kong                           44.4

9. San Marino                           44.4

10. Andorra                            44.3

11. Isle of Man                           44.2

12. Saint Barthélemy                     44.1

13. Australia                            44

14. Lithuania                                   43.7

15. Latvia                             43.6

16. Bermuda                                   43.4

17. Liechtenstein                           43.2

18. Croatia                                      43

19. Spain                                         42.7    

20. Bulgaria                                    42.7


*Average Age in Other Countries of Interests

Canada                       42.2

France                        41.4

United Kingdom                   40.5

Australia                       38.7

United States                    38.1

China                         37.4

Indonesia                     30.2

India                           28.1


As shown above, Japan has the second oldest population in the world. 

2: Changing Population Demographics: Japan & the World


・Total Global Population

As of May 30, 2022, the world population stands at 7.95 billion.

7aed92e8-e0b1-11ec-bfae-062e737cfa80.png

                      Source:world meter

Of that 7.95 billion the top 20 countries with the largest populations are listed below.

7ac79de0-e0b1-11ec-96d4-062e737cfa80.png

                   Source:World Population Review

With 125 million people, Japan ranks 11th in the world for population size with a population density of 332 people per square kilometer, making Japan the 29th most densely populated country in the world.

However if we look at the “growth rate” of the population, we see that Japan’s population growth rate is negative 0.37%, which means that Japan’s population is shrinking by 0.37% every year. Compared to the rest of the world Japan is 12th in the rate of population decline. The country whose population is declining the fastest is currently Lebanon due to a several year recession followed by the pandemic. Other countries who rank higher than Japan in population decline are Bulgaria, Latvia, Greece and the Maldives.

・World population projections

7ada6b3c-e0b1-11ec-853f-062e737cfa80.png

Source:world meter

Population growth predictions expect for the global population to hit 8 billion next year, 9 billion by 2037, and 10 billion by 2057. An enormous increase in a very short amount of time. 

But as the world population continues to grow, what are the projections for Japan’s population demographics?

・Japan Population Projections

While the global population is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1% per year, Japan’s population decline is expected to accelerate from -0.24% to -0.69%. Projections suggest that by 2050 Japan’s population will decline by roughly 20 million people. 

Given that the world population is on the rise, and Japan’s population is on the decline, it would be easy to assume that the global birth rate is rather high. However, the data suggests otherwise.

7b0338dc-e0b1-11ec-9e41-062e737cfa80.png

                      Source:world meter

While the global population is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1% per year, Japan’s population decline is expected to accelerate from -0.24% to -0.69%. Projections suggest that by 2050 Japan’s population will decline by roughly 20 million people. 

Given that the world population is on the rise, and Japan’s population is on the decline, it would be easy to assume that the global birth rate is rather high. However, the data suggests otherwise. 

7a856af6-e0b1-11ec-8d14-062e737cfa80.png

                     Source:world meter

The graph above shows the percent of global population growth from 1951 to 2019. While in the late 1960s the global population was growing at a rate 2.1% that rate has dropped a whole percentage point to 1.1% in 2019. This means that people are having less children across the globe on average. So then what is causing the global population rise if it isn’t the birth rate? The answer could be found in the average life expectancy around the world.  So what do the global trends of life expectancy look like?

・Average Life Expectancy: World

7ab29e9a-e0b1-11ec-b4c9-062e737cfa80.png

As evident in the graph above, global life expectancy has increased significantly in the past 70 years. Hong Kong is number 1 for life expectancy in the world, followed by (2) Japan, (3) Macao, (4) Switzerland, and (5) Singapore.

3:Summary 

From all the data above we can conclude the following. 

The global population is growing more because of rising life expectancy rather than a vast increase in birth rates. 

Japan’s population is in fact declining but Japan also has the second highest life expectancy in the world. 

Finally, all projections assume that current trends remain constant. The global pandemic has changed working life for many in Japan. The flexibility of working remotely has the possibility to give way to younger Japanese people making different decisions about children and family than their peers a mere decade ago. All in all, time will tell, but for now we have to admit that Elon Musk wasn’t wrong when he inferred that the population in Japan is on the decline, but whether Japan will cease to exist….the data projections doesn't support that theory in the slightest.



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