Japan vs. the World: Aging Population and Population Decline (2022 Update)

On May 8th 2022 Elon Musk tweeted :

“At risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world.”

The viral tweet had the internet buzzing, but is this actually true? Will Japan in fact cease to exist at current birth and death rates? News reports and the Japanese are in a constant frenzy about Japan’s declining population, but what do the numbers actually say? We took a look to predict where Japan’s population is headed. 

Japan’s population peaked at 128.1 million between 2008 and 2010, 12 years later Japan’s population has dropped to 125.8 million which translates to a 1.79% decrease in roughly 15 years. 

But how do these numbers compare with global trends in the rest of the world?

1: Median Age in Japan vs the World

*Data Source: World Population Review and World Meter 

 ・Average age of the global population

The map below identifies the median age by country of the population across the globe

This image shows that the average age of the population in most countries ranges from 30 - 40. 

So how does Japan compare with the rest of the world?

・Countries with the Highest Median Age

1. Monaco　　　　　　　       　55.4

2. Japan　　　　　　　　      　48.6

3. Germany　　　　　　　     　47.8

4. Saint Pierre and Miquelon　　46.5

5. Italy　　　　　　                 　 44.5

6. Greece　　　                             44.5

7. Slovenia　　                               44.5

8. Hong Kong　　                         44.4

9. San Marino　　                         44.4

10. Andorra　　　                         44.3

11. Isle of Man　　                         44.2

12. Saint Barthélemy                     44.1

13. Australia　　　                         44

14. Lithuania                                   43.7

15. Latvia　　　　                         43.6

16. Bermuda                                   43.4

17. Liechtenstein                           43.2

18. Croatia                                      43

19. Spain                                         42.7    

20. Bulgaria                                    42.7

*Average Age in Other Countries of Interests

Canada　　　　　　                　42.2

France　　　　　　　                 41.4

United Kingdom　　　                40.5

Australia　　　　　　                 38.7

United States　　　　                38.1

China　　　　　　　                  37.4

Indonesia　　　　　　               30.2

India　　　　　　　                    28.1

As shown above, Japan has the second oldest population in the world. 

2: Changing Population Demographics: Japan & the World

・Total Global Population

As of May 30, 2022, the world population stands at 7.95 billion.

With 125 million people, Japan ranks 11th in the world for population size with a population density of 332 people per square kilometer, making Japan the 29th most densely populated country in the world.

However if we look at the “growth rate” of the population, we see that Japan’s population growth rate is negative 0.37%, which means that Japan’s population is shrinking by 0.37% every year. Compared to the rest of the world Japan is 12th in the rate of population decline. The country whose population is declining the fastest is currently Lebanon due to a several year recession followed by the pandemic. Other countries who rank higher than Japan in population decline are Bulgaria, Latvia, Greece and the Maldives.

Population growth predictions expect for the global population to hit 8 billion next year, 9 billion by 2037, and 10 billion by 2057. An enormous increase in a very short amount of time. 

But as the world population continues to grow, what are the projections for Japan’s population demographics?

While the global population is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1% per year, Japan’s population decline is expected to accelerate from -0.24% to -0.69%. Projections suggest that by 2050 Japan’s population will decline by roughly 20 million people. 

Given that the world population is on the rise, and Japan’s population is on the decline, it would be easy to assume that the global birth rate is rather high. However, the data suggests otherwise.

While the global population is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1% per year, Japan’s population decline is expected to accelerate from -0.24% to -0.69%. Projections suggest that by 2050 Japan’s population will decline by roughly 20 million people. 

Given that the world population is on the rise, and Japan’s population is on the decline, it would be easy to assume that the global birth rate is rather high. However, the data suggests otherwise. 

3：Summary 

From all the data above we can conclude the following. 

The global population is growing more because of rising life expectancy rather than a vast increase in birth rates. 

Japan’s population is in fact declining but Japan also has the second highest life expectancy in the world. 

Finally, all projections assume that current trends remain constant. The global pandemic has changed working life for many in Japan. The flexibility of working remotely has the possibility to give way to younger Japanese people making different decisions about children and family than their peers a mere decade ago. All in all, time will tell, but for now we have to admit that Elon Musk wasn’t wrong when he inferred that the population in Japan is on the decline, but whether Japan will cease to exist….the data projections doesn't support that theory in the slightest.